Four years into Russia’s war against Ukraine, Europe still looks like a slow learner. This RUSI commentary distils ten hard lessons from the conflict – and most of them point to European weakness, delay and dangerous self-deception. The war has exposed how unprepared Europe was for high-intensity conflict and how dependent it remains on others to sustain one. Adaptation has happened, but late, unevenly and often under pressure from events rather than strategy.

Germany is talking itself into paralysis. This IP Quarterly examination argues that a deepening culture of pessimism is now shaping German politics, economics and security choices – and not for the better. Public debate is dominated by decline narratives, threat inflation and a belief that everything is getting worse at once.

Europe is confronting a darker kind of violence – and it does not fit the old playbooks. This Konrad Adenauer Foundation study examines the rise of nihilistic violence, a form of brutality driven less by ideology and more by alienation, rage and the desire for destruction itself. Unlike classic extremism, this violence is harder to track, harder to deter and harder to explain.

This ECFR commentary argues that the dramatic US military capture of Venezuela’s president under a revived Monroe-style foreign policy forces Europe into a set of hard political dilemmas. Washington’s intervention isn’t only about Latin America – it signals a shift toward a more interventionist and unpredictable US posture that leaves European capitals scrambling for answers.

This EUISS commentary exposes a tangled frontline where Russia’s hybrid energy tactics are still inflicting damage on Europe and Ukraine. Moscow has weaponised misinformation, market manipulation and geopolitical pressure to undermine European unity, hit public confidence and delay hard decisions on energy security.

This CIDOB publication looks at the future of EU defence and its armed forces – and the picture is not comforting. Europe talks about “strategic autonomy” and a stronger military role, but its real capabilities remain limited and fragmented. Member states still treat defence as national territory, budgets are uneven, and Europe’s armed forces are not built for rapid, large-scale action. The message is clear: Europe wants to look like a security power, but it is still struggling to act like one.

This IRIS analysis delivers a sharp warning Europe does not want to hear – the risk of EU fragmentation is no longer theoretical. Economic weakness, repeated crises, and rising political polarisation are building pressure inside the Union. The text argues Europe needs “productive resilience” – real industrial and economic capacity – to hold the EU together. Without it, Europe risks becoming a bloc held by rules and habit, not by strength, growth or shared confidence.