This Bruegel policy brief delivers an uncomfortable message Europe keeps dodging – the EU’s defence “autonomy” talk collapses the moment you look at the receipts. Europe is heavily dependent on US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) for key weapons systems, especially as countries rush to rearm after Russia’s war in Ukraine. The problem is not just political pride. Reliance on US arms sales creates delays, reduces Europe’s control, and risks leaving European militaries exposed if Washington changes priorities. Europe wants to be taken seriously as a security actor – but it is still shopping like a client, not building like a power.

This EUISS commentary warns that Europe is walking into a brutal new era where critical raw materials are no longer “commodities” – they are weapons. The return of Trump-style protectionism, combined with China’s dominance over many supply chains, is turning minerals into tools of pressure, punishment and price warfare. Europe is dangerously exposed: it needs these materials for defence, batteries, renewables and industry, yet it lacks control over both supply and processing. The EU talks about resilience – but in a real showdown, it is the one most likely to be squeezed.