Europe Can’t Wait for Washington: The US Pressure Is Here to Stay

Europe survived a bruising year of transatlantic confrontation, but EUISS warns against believing America’s midterm elections will bring the old relationship back. Washington challenged European allies over Greenland, threatened NATO troop withdrawals and piled pressure on the EU over trade and digital regulation.

Europe pushed back without allowing the alliance to collapse – proof that resistance can work when Europeans remain united and have credible leverage. But the respite is fragile. Europe should prepare for at least two more years of confrontation while it remains dangerously dependent on US security.

Greenland showed Europe can hit back

The Greenland confrontation offered an important lesson. European countries deployed troops, the EU paused ratification of the Turnberry trade deal and threatened retaliation covering €93 billion of US imports, while signalling that its Anti-Coercion Instrument could be used.

EUISS argues that this combination of unity and economic leverage helped persuade Washington to retreat.

Europe discovered that simply accommodating American pressure is not its only option – credible costs can change the calculation.

Trust has taken a beating

The political damage is harder to repair.

The share of EU citizens holding a negative view of the US jumped 14 percentage points between autumn 2025 and spring 2026. Some of the biggest shifts came in traditionally Atlanticist countries.

Americans are also becoming less confident that Europeans would support them during a crisis. The alliance survived 2026, but the reservoir of mutual trust underneath it is draining.

The midterms will not rescue Europe

European governments should not build their strategy around hopes that US domestic politics will tame the White House.

Even if Democrats gain control of Congress, legislators are likely to focus heavily on domestic battles. Tariffs, troop reductions and European security may not top their agenda.

A hostile Congress could constrain the administration in some areas, but EUISS warns it might also push the White House towards greater reliance on executive power – potentially making foreign policy even less predictable.

Washington believes pressure works

This is the problem Europe must confront.

The Trump administration sees uncertainty and pressure on allies as useful tools for extracting higher defence spending and concessions on trade. It can also link supposedly separate issues, using security dependence as leverage in economic disputes.

If Europeans repeatedly concede rather than impose costs, Washington has little reason to abandon the tactic.

Dependence remains Europe’s weak spot

A complete transatlantic rupture would still be dangerous. Europe is not yet capable of replacing every critical American military contribution, and a sudden break could weaken deterrence precisely when Russia remains a major threat.

That leaves Europe trapped in an awkward middle ground – it must cooperate with Washington while simultaneously making itself harder for Washington to pressure.

Higher defence spending, replacing US military enablers, deeper cooperation with Ukraine’s defence industry and diversified trade relationships are therefore not just autonomy projects. They are insurance against coercion.

Europe needs more weapons in its toolbox

EUISS calls for a more versatile strategy: preserve cooperation where interests align, but make coercion expensive.

Possible tools include suspending cooperation important to Washington, restricting investment or energy purchases and, in extreme cases, reconsidering aspects of US military access. But threats only deter when Europe is genuinely prepared to bear the consequences.

Europe also needs escape routes from confrontation. The Greenland episode showed that deterrence works better when Washington is simultaneously offered a face-saving path towards de-escalation.

The uncomfortable truth: Europe needs America, but needs leverage too

Waiting for US politics to restore the comfortable transatlantic relationship of the past would leave Europe exposed. The tensions are deeper than one election and may survive Trump himself.

Europe’s task is therefore unforgiving – keep America engaged, build the capacity to resist American pressure and reduce the dependencies that make coercion possible in the first place.